.jpeg)
JPMorgan Predicts Brent Crude Could Crash to $30 by 2027 on Surging Supply
Brent crude prices may fall drastically to $30 per barrel by March 2027 due to a growing global supply glut, according to JPMorgan. Despite steady demand rising to 105 million barrels per day by 2025, supply-especially from non-OPEC+ nations-is expected to grow nearly three times faster. This oversupply may push prices to $50 by year-end and average $42 in 2027. While import-heavy countries like India may benefit, consumers are unlikely to see price cuts.
Crude oil prices could fall sharply. JPMorgan estimates that Brent crude could fall to $30 per barrel by March 2027. This potential decline is due to increasing excess supply, which could suppress steady demand growth. Currently, it is $60 per barrel. Despite the expected increase in oil consumption over the next three years, supply increases, particularly from non-OPEC+ producers, are likely to significantly impact the global market and prices.
Global oil demand is expected to reach 105 million barrels per day in 2025. Growth is expected to continue at this pace in 2026 and accelerate further in 2027. Despite this steady growth, JPMorgan estimates that supply will grow at three times the rate of demand in 2025 and 2026. Despite slowing supply growth in 2027, it will remain well above the market's required capacity. Crude oil could fall to lows of $50 by the end of the year and average around $42 in 2027. While a complete decline may not occur, rebalancing will occur through voluntary and involuntary production cuts.
Countries like India, which rely on oil imports, could benefit economically from lower crude oil prices. However, consumers will not benefit. Crude oil prices have fallen several times in the past two years, yet diesel and petrol prices in the country remain high.
JP Morgan said half of the expected additional supply by 2027 will come from non-OPEC+ countries. Offshore projects, once considered expensive and cyclical, have emerged as a reliable source of growth. Demand for them is also increasing.
Want to get your story featured as above? click here!
Want to get your story featured as above? click here!
The surge in production has led to a significant accumulation of reserves. Global oil reserves have increased by 1.5 million barrels per day this year. This includes about 1 million barrels of oil-on-water and stored in Chinese reserves. This could potentially increase the surplus to 2.8 million barrels per day in 2026 and 2.7 million barrels per day in 2027.
