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Nuvama Report: Trade Deficit to Remain Stable in Near to Medium Term
Report: According to a Nuwama report, India's trade deficit is likely to remain around November levels, i.e., around $25 billion, in the near to medium term. Although exports are under pressure due to the global slowdown, a weak rupee could support exports by making Indian products cheaper abroad and limiting import prices.
According to a Nuwama report, the country's trade deficit is likely to remain around November levels in the near to medium term. The report states that the Indian rupee's weakness could help control the gap between exports and imports.
According to the report, India's overall export performance has remained weak so far in the financial year 2025-26. The slowing down of the global trade may also have a negative effect on India's exports in the next few months. Therefore, the events surrounding the trade agreement between India and the US will be of prime importance in the future.
The report stated that although the export of goods is now sluggish, the fall of the rupee will mean that their prices will be lower in other countries too, and hence will support export activities in the future to some extent. In addition to that, an increase in the cost of imports will also decrease their size to some extent. Consequently, the trade deficit will remain under control for now and in the medium term as well.
It was also mentioned that the exports can grow at a slower rate, but the imports can also not increase much because of the low demand within the country. This would make it less likely that the trade deficit widens.
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The November trade data showed a sharp improvement in the merchandise trade deficit. It declined by $17 billion to $25 billion. This was primarily due to a significant decline in gold imports. While gold imports were $15 billion in October, they fell to just $4 billion in November. The core trade deficit, excluding oil and gold, also declined by $4 billion to $10 billion.
Goods exports also recorded a strong rebound in November. Exports grew 19% year-on-year, after a 12% decline in October. Merchandise import growth, on the other hand, slowed to 2% in November from 17% in October. However, imports grew 11% based on a three-month moving average. Core imports grew 12%, reflecting strong demand for electronics, chemicals, and machinery.
Overall, the Nuvama report suggests that while exports remain under pressure, softening imports and a weakening rupee could help stabilize India's trade deficit in the coming months.
