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SBI Sees Sharp Decline in Crude Oil Prices Amid Weak Global Demand
Fuel: According to an SBI report, crude oil prices are expected to fall in the coming months. The report states that crude oil could reach US$50 per barrel by June 2026. The main reason for this decline is rising inventories, which is expected to put pressure on prices.
The prices of crude oil are expected to decline over the coming months. According to a State Bank of India report, crude oil prices could fall to US$50 per barrel by June 2026.
The SBI pointed out that due to growing stocks and a lack of favorable trends globally, the overall perspective for the price of crude oil in 2026 is deteriorating from the present situation. The US Energy Information Administration has forecast a drop in Brent crude oil prices to $55 a barrel in Q1 of 2026, it said.
Taking into consideration the close relation between global and domestic prices for crude oil, it can be identified from the report that the Indian crude oil prices are also expected to ease up because they are closely correlated to Brent with a correlation coefficient of 0.98. As such, variations in the prices of Brent crude imply an even further reduction in the level of Indian oil stocks.
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According to moving average analysis, Indian crude prices are currently trending below both the 50-period and 200-period moving averages. This technical signal indicates the possibility of further price weakness from the current level of $62.20 per barrel.
The report states that a potential decline in crude oil prices could have a positive impact on India's inflation rate. It is estimated that the price of the Indian crude basket could fall to $53.31 per barrel. Additionally, due to the dynamic pricing system implemented on a daily basis, this decline could be directly reflected in retail prices of petrol and diesel.
The report estimates that a 14% decline in the Indian crude basket in the fourth quarter of FY2026, assuming a 48% pass-through, would impact the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and could exert negative pressure of approximately 22 basis points on the CPI basket.
This softening of inflation could lead to average retail inflation falling below 3.4% in FY2027. According to the report, this situation will not only provide relief to fuel prices but also provide significant support to the economy on the overall inflation front.
