India will lead global oil demand by 2030 due to economic growth; demand will remain high till the end of this decade

Global oil demand is expected to continue growing rapidly until the end of this decade. It will peak in 2027 in top importer China, supported by cheap petrol in the US and slow adoption of electric vehicles. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has not made any change in its forecast.

The IEA stated that demand will peak by 2029; however, it is estimated that demand in China will already peak due to the increasing number of electric vehicles. Global demand will peak in a few years. However, the producer group Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) believes that consumption will continue to grow, but has not made any forecast of peak consumption.

According to the IEA's annual report, oil demand will reach a high of 105 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2029. Then there will be a slight decline in 2030. Global production capacity is estimated to increase by more than 5 million bpd to 114.7 million bpd by 2030. The conflict between Israel and Iran has highlighted the risk to Middle East supplies. This led to oil prices rising 5 percent to above $ 74 a barrel on Friday.

The report said that if there is no major obstacle, there will be adequate supply by 2030. IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said, based on fundamentals, oil markets are likely to be well supplied in the coming years. But recent events have made tensions between countries a major issue for oil supply security. The world market looks well-supplied this year, as there have been no major disruptions and supply growth is outpacing demand.

The IEA said global demand will rise by 720,000 bpd this year, 20,000 bpd less than last month's forecast. Supply will rise by 1.8 million bpd, 200,000 bpd more than last month. This is partly due to increased production by OPEC and other countries.