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Maharashtra and Karnataka Among Top Beneficiaries of New GST Structure: SBI Research
SBI Report, GST revenue: SBI Research has estimated that India's GST collections in FY 2026 will exceed the government's budgeted estimates. Despite the restructuring of tax rates in September 2025, states have benefited.
Providing key signals on the course of the economy, SBI Research has estimated that GST revenues in FY26 would be in excess of the government's budgeted estimates. In fact, even after restructuring the rates of duty in states, total GST revenues remain strong, indicating a stable tax system in the Indian economy.
It has been estimated by the SBI Research report that GST collections in FY 2026 are likely to be higher than the budgeted estimates. The report estimated this based on the growth rate projections issued by the GST Council. It said, despite the recent restructuring of tax rates, most states will witness net gains in FY 2026.
Under the GST rate restructuring implemented in September 2025, a four-tier structure is now in place: zero percent, five percent, 18 percent, and 40 percent. According to the report, Maharashtra will benefit by approximately six percent from this change, while Karnataka will receive an increase of up to 10.7 percent. The report also stated that the states will be net gainers overall after the rate restructuring.
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SBI Research also incorporated the experiences of the GST rate revisions of July 2018 and October 2019 into its analysis. According to the report, a temporary decline of three to four percent is observed in the initial months after the rate change, but thereafter, revenues increase steadily by five to six percent monthly. It is estimated that this improvement could translate into additional revenue of up to ₹1 lakh crore annually.
According to official data released by the Finance Ministry, GST collections increased by 4.6% to ₹1.95 lakh crore in October 2025, compared to ₹1.87 lakh crore in the same month last year. Total collections from April to October 2025 recorded a nine percent increase to ₹13.89 lakh crore. Central GST, State GST, and Integrated GST all saw increases during this period, while cess collections declined marginally. Experts believe that if this trend continues, government revenues could strengthen further in the coming months.
