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Pakistan’s Economic Outlook Weakens: IMF Lowers Growth Estimate, Raises Inflation to 8.4% Amid Energy Risks
The IMF has reduced Pakistan's economic growth forecast for the fiscal year 2026-27 to 3.5%, primarily due to tensions in the Middle East. The inflation forecast has also been raised to 8.4%. The report anticipates an increase in Pakistan's external sector and current account deficits, particularly due to its dependence on energy imports from the Middle East. The IMF has also expressed concern about the global economy.
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“Pakistan’s Economic Outlook Weakens: IMF Lowers Growth Estimate, Raises Inflation to 8.4% Amid Energy Risks”
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16 Apr 2026
IMF has lowered Pakistan’s projected GDP growth rate for fiscal 2026-27 to 3.5% from 4.1%, citing tensions in the Middle East as the main reason behind it.
Furthermore, according to IMF, if there were an escalation in tension, it would cause significant damage to the world economy. The forecast of GDP growth rate for the current fiscal year remains unchanged at 3.6%, matching expectations from other prominent organizations.
However, the IMF sees inflation as a threat to economic stability. The forecast of the inflation rate for the next fiscal year has been revised higher by the IMF to 8.4% from 7%. This year, inflation is expected to average 7.2%, higher than last year’s 6.3%.
