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AI Won’t Eliminate White-Collar Jobs Soon, Says Former Reserve Bank of India Governor Raghuram Rajan
Former Reserve Bank of India Governor Raghuram Rajan has said that the impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI) is being exaggerated and that white-collar jobs won't disappear in the next few years.
The impact of Artificial Intelligence is being overhyped, and white-collar jobs are not going to disappear in the next few years. This is what former Reserve Bank of India Governor Raghuram Rajan has to say on the matter.
In a recent article published on Project Syndicate, he explained how the rate of change depends on various factors like the adoption of technology, competition in the market, and government policies.
Rajan further stated, "New technologies typically take longer than predicted to spread across various industries."
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He added, "Except in a few areas like software, various challenges and resistance to change often slow the adoption of new technologies."
To cite an example, he used the example of automated telephone exchanges, which took many decades to replace human operators. He also stated that the adoption of AI in many industries might take many decades.
Rajan later shared his views in a post on LinkedIn, where he stated that many predictions regarding AI ignore the role of society and politics.
He stated, "Public opinion and political reactions will also determine how AI affects jobs and the broader economy." In his analysis, Rajan outlined several possible paths for an AI-based economy.
In his outlook, Rajan stated that some powerful AI platforms developed by companies like Anthropic and Meta Platforms could gain a strong technological edge and charge higher prices to businesses relying on their AI systems.
If this happens, companies across various industries could use AI to automate many tasks and reduce the number of white-collar employees. In such a scenario, workers who lose their jobs could move to service sectors like retail or hospitality, which could increase competition and lower wages in these sectors. Rajan also mentioned another possibility, in which multiple AI systems compete in the market.
He said, "In such a scenario, productivity gains could spread more broadly across the economy rather than being limited to a few companies."
