Crisil Says Venezuela Crisis Unlikely to Impact Global Oil Prices in Near Term

The current developments in Venezuela do not have any significant bearing, in the immediate future, on the prices of crude oil, according to a report from Crisil Ratings. Venezuela’s contribution to the global market is very small, according to the report.

It means that even with the escalation of the situation and the effect on the level of production, the effect on prices will not be severe. The arrest of the Venezuelan President, Nicolas Maduro, after US military intervention in early January, has raised concerns regarding the country. Venezuela holds the second-largest proven crude oil reserves in the world, while its share of the global supply is just about 1.5%. Brent crude prices are stable at just above $60 per barrel.

Crisil stated that for India, the developments in Venezuela do not appear to have any significant impact on trade or corporate credit quality. Venezuela accounts for less than 0.25% of India's total imports. Crude oil comprised over 90% of India's imports worth approximately ₹14,000 crore in fiscal year 2025, while Venezuela supplies only about 1% of India's total crude oil needs.

However, the agency added that in the medium to long term, if investment in Venezuela's large untapped reserves increases, global supply could increase, and this could be a positive for Indian companies as oil prices soften.

Meanwhile, a report by the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA), a European think tank, stated that India became the third-largest buyer of Russian fossil fuels in December 2025, having previously held the second position. India's Russian hydrocarbon imports in December amounted to €2.3 billion, down from €3.3 billion in November. Turkey overtook India to take second place, while China remained at the top.

According to CREA, crude oil accounted for 78% of India's Russian imports in December (1.8 billion euros), while coal and oil products made up the remainder. Russian crude oil imports fell 29% month-on-month compared to November, reaching the lowest level since the price cap policy was implemented.

The report stated that this decline in imports was primarily driven by Reliance Industries' Jamnagar refinery, which halved its imports from Russia in December. Reliance's supplies were from Russia's Rosneft, based on cargoes purchased before the imposition of US Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) sanctions.

In addition, public sector refineries also reduced Russian imports by 15% in December. While some Indian refineries have halted or reduced imports due to US sanctions imposed on major Russian oil companies, purchases from non-sanctioned Russian companies continue.