US: No layoffs, but the job market is in crisis; the current unemployment rate is the highest since 2012, excluding pandemic

People from many countries, including India and China, are trying to get jobs with H-1B visas in search of employment in the US, but the US job market is gradually weakening. This decline isn't visible through widespread layoffs because the unemployment rate remains low. However, it has become clear that new college graduates are struggling to find jobs in the US, with the unemployment rate for college graduates aged 22 to 27 reaching 5.8% in March.

According to a survey of forecasters by data firm FactSet, this unemployment rate is the highest since 2012, excluding the pandemic period. It is significantly higher than the national unemployment rate. Many Americans who are still employed are hesitant to seek new jobs now because their job market has shrunk.

Only a few industries are actively hiring. But older workers who still have jobs don't trust these opportunities. The survey indicates that when the Department of Labor releases its July employment report on Saturday, Indian time, it will reveal how many jobs companies and government agencies added last month.

Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon, said, "The US labor market is set for a recession as businesses are halting hiring plans but avoiding layoffs on a large scale. In the coming months, we are seeing the pace of employment growth slow down significantly below the trend." Vanguard senior economist Adam Schickling warned, "The low unemployment rate and the slow pace of layoffs hide underlying weakness." But this weakness works in secret and can become dangerous later on.