Bengaluru, March 12, 2026 : MPOWER Financing, a leading global firm enabling high-potential international students to pursue higher education abroad, has shared its assessment of the newly announced changes to the U.S. H-1B visa program. MPOWER’s internal modeling, based on the past several years of H-1B results, suggests that the shift from a random lottery to a wage-based selection would have a neutral or even positive impact for Indian Master’s STEM graduates.

What is the new policy?

Today, the H-1B program operates under an annual cap of 85,000 visas—65,000 in the general pool and an additional 20,000 reserved for applicants with a U.S. master’s degree or higher—with demand far exceeding supply. As a result, selection is currently determined through a random lottery. In parallel, certain employers such as universities, hospitals, and nonprofit research organizations are exempt from the cap entirely, allowing them to sponsor H-1B workers year-round without participating in the lottery.

The U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) has replaced the traditional random H-1B (work visa) lottery with a salary-weighted selection system, prioritising applicants with higher wages. The change takes effect on February 27, 2026.

Under the revised framework, H-1B registrations will receive weighted selection chances based on prevailing wage levels. Higher-paying roles will receive multiple entries in the selection process, while entry-level roles will receive fewer, shifting the system from a chance-based lottery to a merit- and wage-based selection model. As a result, candidates in higher-paying and more specialised roles receive a greater probability of selection.

How would Indian students be impacted?

Since over 80% of Indian students in the U.S. are Master’s degree candidates, they are most likely to enter the workforce at a higher prevailing wage level, effectively improving their selection odds compared to undergraduate-level roles.

By contrast, undergraduate students—particularly those outside STEM and business disciplines or from less brand-recognised institutions—may face reduced selection probabilities under the new framework, unless they secure roles with higher starting wages.

The H-1B “win rate” remains a long-term calculation. Most STEM-eligible students can apply for H-1B selection in each of their three years of Optional Practical Training (OPT). In addition, U.S. Master’s degree holders benefit from a separate annual allocation of 20,000 H-1B visas, which is over and above the regular 65,000 cap.

This advanced-degree allocation effectively provides Master’s graduates with two opportunities for selection each year—first within the Master’s-only pool, and then again in the general H-1B pool—materially improving long-term success rates compared to undergraduate applicants.

Accordingly, MPOWER’s internal modeling suggests that the transition to a weighted system will have a marginal impact on the Indian student population’s long-term success rates:

Current System: A Master’s degree holder has a 3-year win rate of 70% (accounting for three years of OPT and the separate Master’s draw).

●      New Weighted System: Under the new weighted system, a candidate would have a 3-year success rate of 66%: slightly lower, but broadly similar to their success rates under the current regime.

●      Promotion Impact: Crucially, if that candidate is promoted to a higher-paying role by their third year of OPT, their success rate rises to 73%, exceeding their probability under today’s system. Similarly, graduates of top MBA or MS programs who secure higher-paying roles in fields such as investment banking, management consulting, or big tech may enter the system with an advantage, as their initial compensation levels are more likely to align with the wage-weighted selection criteria.

Overall, the modeling suggests a broadly neutral outcome for Indian Master’s degree students, with improved probabilities for those who advance into higher-paying roles over time.

More broadly, the proposed changes apply only to the capped H-1B program and do not affect other employment-based visa categories. Pathways such as O-1 visas for individuals with extraordinary ability, L-1 intracompany transfers, G-visas for employees of international organizations, and permanent residence options such as EB-2 NIW remain unchanged. For many international graduates, particularly those with specialized skills or international organization employment, these alternative routes continue to provide viable and unaffected options for working in the United States.

It is also important to note that certain categories of applicants remain exempt from the annual H-1B cap altogether. Medical graduates and professionals employed by non-profit organisations, universities, and non-profit or university-affiliated hospitals may qualify for uncapped H-1B visas, meaning they are not subject to the annual numerical limits or the new selection framework. This provides continued stability for healthcare professionals and researchers trained in the U.S

“The new framework places greater emphasis on role quality, wage progression, and skill specialisation,” said Sasha Ramani, Head of Corporate Strategy and Government Relations for MPOWER Financing. “For Master’s graduates in high-demand fields, particularly STEM and analytics-driven roles, long-term outcomes remain largely stable. Students who secure mid-level jobs in high-paying fields like investment banking, management consulting, or top Tech companies, or students who grow into higher-paying positions over the course of their OPT are likely to increase their odds of securing an H1-B under this new system.”

This wage-prioritization change comes on top of the recently announced $100,000 H-1B visa fee, which does not apply to international students transitioning from an F-1 student visa (and associated OPT period) to H-1B status from within the United States. This fee-exemption exemption ensures that U.S.-educated international graduates, who have already invested significantly in American higher education and workforce readiness, are not subject to additional financial barriers at the point of transition.

MPOWER also sees increasing evidence that the value of a U.S. graduate degree is truly global. Our data suggests that more students are now pursuing parallel post-graduation pathways—gaining valuable work experience in the U.S. through OPT, while simultaneously exploring long-term immigration options in Canada as an alternative career pathway. This dual-track approach allows graduates to maximize the return on their U.S. education while maintaining flexibility in an evolving policy environment.

Overall, MPOWER views these policy updates as a recalibration of the H-1B system rather than a structural change. For Indian students pursuing U.S. Master’s degrees in high-demand fields, the pathway remains viable—particularly for those who focus on skill development, employer quality, and wage progression over time.

About MPOWER Financing

Co-headquartered in Washington, D.C. and Bengaluru, India, MPOWER Financing is a mission-driven fintech company and the leading provider of global education loans. Its proprietary algorithm analyzes overseas and domestic credit data as well as future earning potential to serve promising international students. MPOWER works with over 500 top universities across the U.S. and Canada to provide financing to students from over 200 countries.

The MPOWER team consists primarily of former international students and provides students with personal financial education, immigration guidance, and career support to prepare them for professional success after graduation.

MPOWER Financing has been named a Great Place To Work, one of the best fintechs to work for, and a top tech workplace for diversity. The company is hiring for various positions worldwide. For more information, visit www.mpowerfinancing.com.